Business practices - Churn Prediction

03.09.14
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The experience and knowledge of 11235 in anticipation of customers, turn over rate  extends to some of the largest industries - telecom, insurance, banking and financial institutions. We have expertise in the development and validation of a mathematical formula (model), which gives the final assessment whether a customer has a profile of a churner or not. In developing a model for recognition of churners, large telecom achieved 70% recognition of customers leaving in the next month. Hereafter retention of customers depends on the ability to communicate with them and the attractiveness of your proposal. Not always, however, retaining is pursued at any cost. Good subsequent activity, once the most endangered customers are defined, is to calculate their future lifetime value to the company. In other words, to keep the client by offering him a free new phone, after which he decides to stops paying for the services is a scenario that can be predicted and avoided. In this case, it is necessary to combine the churn prognosis with the lifetime value of the customer.

The situation in the insurance industry is quite different and that reasons are obvious. While in the telecom industry there is a constantly update of client usage data, in the insurance industry, customer behavior is much less pronounced and occurs with much lower intensity. The latter determines the lowest results in the creation of models for customer retention. An example would be a model that predicts if a customer will not renew their automobile insurance. Of course one problem creates an opportunities to build a competitive advantage. Companies that want to develop prospective analysis should reconsider the type and amount of data they collect for their clients. Data such as, how many days before (after) the end of the service, the client usually renews it, the variation of the above value, a change in place of renewal of the service, time of the last response to a marketing initiative, a change in the method of payment, how many channels contact with the client are active and other values could provide value in the mathematical formula of the forecast. Thus, companies that begin to collect more data will have greater success in predicting analytical models, respectively, competitive advantage by retaining more customers. In this industry recognition of potential exit of customers of around 40% would be considered satisfactory.

The financial and banking sector shares many similarities with the telecom industry in terms of diversity of client data. Here it is reasonable to combine a churn prediction for specific products, with an estimate of cross selling. So if product or service appears as inappropriate for a specific customer an alternative can be suggested instead. Again in this case the proactive approach is much more effective than the reactive approach, catching up - when the client already has declared certain desire, instead of offering the appropriate product beforehand. Very often, in order to understand the reasons why customers are leaving, especially if they have such high living cost is better to place outbound surveys. There are many cases in which customers leave due to relocation, requirements of employers etc., where our efforts to keep them as a customer would be in vain. But if the reasons are relates to the products, the communication and or the service provided, then the approach should be different.  Here the search of solutions that meets emerging needs, developing new products or services and delegating a team for customer retention. The latter is realized in one of the largest financial institutions in the country, which is our client, and the results are present. This company has established itself as a market leader in its field, with customer satisfaction well above average, not only for the country, but for the whole of Eastern Europe.

Optimal and targeted communication that occurs proactively based on churn models, provide significantly better results in the process of retaining and developing customers. The latter provides the competitive advantage of companies that have adopted this approach and turns them into market leaders.